RE: 3PMD Proposal is not enough
Steve,
This is a fair request, but one that will take a fair amount of time to
compile. I am sure that you recognize that you are asking me to summarize
the last 6 months or more of information and discussion regarding PMD
tradeoffs including the one hour PMD discussion at the Ottawa meeting (a
slightly larger scope of question than the one I asked :-).
Hey, I like a challenge as much as the next guy.
jonathan
>-----Original Message-----
>From: Swanson, Steven E [mailto:SwansonSE@corning.com]
>Sent: Saturday, June 24, 2000 7:24 AM
>To: 'stds-802-3-hssg@ieee.org'; 'Jonathan Thatcher'
>Subject: RE: 3PMD Proposal is not enough
>
>
>Jonathan,
>
>This is a great set of questions but I would like to broaden
>the scope to also include the other PMDs under consideration
>by 802.3ae. I understand (I think) the motivation for 1550 nm
>since support of extended link lengths is desired but I am
>wondering if others could help me understand the following,
>specifically as it relates to supporting a multimode cable plant:
>
>1. What are the motivations for customer choice of 1310 WWDM?
>2. What are the motivations for customer choice of 1310 Serial?
>3. Are they doing this to get greater distance?
>4. Are they doing this because they believe that operating a
>1310 WWDM or 1310 Serial system over the installed base of MMF
>is less expensive than another solution over new MMF?
>5. Other rationale?
>
>Thanks,
>
>Steve
>> ----------
>> From: Jonathan
>Thatcher[SMTP:Jonathan.Thatcher@worldwidepackets.com]
>> Sent: Friday, June 23, 2000 7:21 PM
>> To: 'stds-802-3-hssg@ieee.org'
>> Subject: RE: 3PMD Proposal is not enough
>>
>>
>> John,
>>
>> This is great information. Thank you.
>>
>> What assumptions are used? What are the motivations for
>customer choice of
>> the new MMF?
>>
>> 1. Are they doing this to get greater distance at gigabit speeds?
>> 2. Are they doing this to improve error rates at gigabit speeds?
>> 3. Are they doing this because the new MMF is less expensive
>than existing
>> MMF?
>> 4. Are they doing this because they expect P802.3ae to adopt
>an 850 nm
>> solution?
>> 5. Other rationale?
>>
>> jonathan
>>
>> >-----Original Message-----
>> >From: George, John Emanuel (John) [mailto:johngeorge@lucent.com]
>> >Sent: Thursday, June 22, 2000 2:21 PM
>> >To: 'stds-802-3-hssg@ieee.org'
>> >Subject: RE: 3PMD Proposal is not enough
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >The previous message had tables that may not have been
>readable. This
>> >version is re-formatted.
>> >
>> >Regards,
>> >
>> >John George
>> >Lucent Technologies
>> >770-798-2432 (Voice)
>> >770-798-3653 (Fax)
>> >
>> >> -----Original Message-----
>> >> From: George, John Emanuel (John)
>> >> Sent: Tuesday, June 20, 2000 5:58 PM
>> >> To: 'stds-802-3-hssg@ieee.org'
>> >> Subject: RE: 3PMD Proposal is not enough
>> >>
>> >> Howard,
>> >>
>> >> Good question.
>> >>
>> >> The short answer is that there will be more than enough
>> >installed next
>> >> generation fiber to support the approximately 2 million
>Ten Gigabit
>> >> Ethernet Ports that Bruce Tolley projected will ship through 2004.
>> >>
>> >(http://grouper.ieee.org/groups/802/3/ae/public/may00/tolley_1_
>> >0500.pdf).
>> >>
>> >
>> >Global MM Shipments (KMI view)
>> >2001 4,316
>> >2002 4,998
>> >2003 5,795
>> >2004 6,522
>> >
>> >% Next Gen MM of total KMI projection
>> >2001 10%
>> >2002 25%
>> >2003 35%
>> >2004 50%
>> >
>> >Next Gen MM FMM (Fiber Mega Meters) annual installation
>> >
>> >2001 432
>> >2002 1,250
>> >2003 2,028
>> >2004 3,261
>> >TOTAL 6,971
>> >
>> >Cumulative 10G ports supported by next generation MM, 0 - 300m
>> >
>> >(See assumptions below)
>> >
>> >2001 650,549
>> >2002 2,488,049
>> >2003 5,470,769
>> >2004 10,266,357
>> >
>> >Bruce Tolley (Cisco) Projection for Total 10 G Ethernet Ports
>> >(Bruce, I estimated these from your logarithmic chart, and
>> >apologize for any
>> >inaccuracies in my reading the datapoints)
>> >
>> >2001 10,000
>> >2002 200,000
>> >2003 800,000
>> >2004 2,000,000
>> >
>> >>
>> >> We estimate that between now and 2004 the installed
>quantity of next
>> >> generation multimode fiber will reach 7,000 FMM (fiber mega
>> >meters). The
>> >> vast majority of the next generation fiber will be installed
>> >in buildings
>> >> in links up to 300 meters. Assuming an average length of 170
>> >meters for
>> >> <300 meter links (based on the 7/96 IEEE survey), and
>> >assuming only 25% of
>> >> the fiber is lit, next generation multimode will be able to
>> >support over
>> >> 10 million 10 Gigabit Ethernet Ports by 2004. Even assuming
>> >that we ship
>> >> only half of the projected next generation multimode, a >
>> >conservative view,
>> >> we will be able to support 5 million ports.
>> >>
>> >> Bottom line: There will be more than enough installed
>next generation
>> >> multimode fiber to support 10 Gigabit Ethernet at 850 nm
>from 0 - 300
>> >> meters.
>> >>
>> >> On the installed base question in general, the global
>> >installed base of
>> >> all multimode by 2004 will be about 35,000 FMM. As of the
>1996 IEEE
>> >> survey, only 20% of the installed FMM was in links up to 300
>> >meters since
>> >> most of the fiber was in the campus and building. By 2004,
>> >we can assume
>> >> the installed base up to 300 meters will grow to 40% of the
>> >total as fiber
>> >> grabs additional share of building backbones and FTTD grows.
>> >>
>> >> Thus, the installed base in links up to 300 meters will be
>> >14,000 FMM (40%
>> >> of 35,000) by 2004, and next generation fiber will comprise
>> >7,000 FMM, or
>> >> 50% of the installed base up to 300 meters.
>> >>
>> >>
>> >> Regards,
>> >>
>> >> John George
>> >> Lucent Technologies
>> >> 770-798-2432 (Voice)
>> >> 770-798-3653 (Fax)
>> >>
>> >> -----Original Message-----
>> >> From: Howard Frazier [SMTP:hfrazier@cisco.com]
>> >> Sent: Wednesday, June 14, 2000 9:09 PM
>> >> To: stds-802-3-hssg@ieee.org
>> >> Subject: RE: 3PMD Proposal
>> >>
>> >>
>> >>
>> >> John,
>> >>
>> >> Can you provide some numbers to substantiate
>> >this assertion:
>> >>
>> >>
>> >> >Please note that pulling new fiber is a small
>> >fraction of
>> >> the total system
>> >> >cost. Customers have already been installing the new
>> >> multimode that will be
>> >> >used today for 1000BASE-SX, and can be upgraded to
>> >> 10000BASE-850nm in the
>> >> >future. The bulk of 10 GBE port sales will occur after
>> >> 2002. By that time,
>> >> >there will be a significant and growing
>> >installed base of
>> >> the new multimode
>> >> >fiber.
>> >>
>> >> What constitutes "a significant and growing
>> >installed base
>> >> of the new
>> >> multi-mode fiber?"
>> >>
>> >> Can you show us a timeline, going out for the next five
>> >> years, with
>> >> your projections of the percentage penetration
>> >for the new
>> >> fiber in
>> >> both the horizontal and backbone applications?
>> >>
>> >> Howard Frazier
>> >> Cisco Systems, Inc.
>> >
>>
>