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[EFM] [Forecasts on 1 GE from NW]

The attached Network World article has pushed me to make a case for why we should not waste our time on a 100M PHY effort.  I will be the first to rail on the point that 1 GE chips in the enterprise environment will be severely stressed in the -20 to +85  degree C. environment of a residential demarc installation in the USA.   However, my ex brethren from the semiconductor industry tell me that they can now yield PLL chips to work over that temp with a minimum of problems and I must trust them until we prove differently.  Anybody in the Southwest or Canada (or anywhere else for that matter) having problems with their Electronically Tuned Radios at extreme temps?
Optics for 1310 1 GE in this environment may be a different story, but I don't see a major difference in that challenge between 100M and 1 G.
I still see HDTV at 1080p as the "killer application" for this standard as I have recently seen a 38.57M simulated HDTV transmission which will be the expectation starting in the sport bars and then moving into the home.  To me, that means more than 100Mb/s to each home within the next five years because many homes will want to watch more than 1 channel of HDTV at any one time (see my presentation to the 3/01 meeting on the w-site -brand_1_0301.pdf)
Richard Brand

11/29/01 - Today's focus: The last upgrade

Dear Richard Brand,

In this issue:

* Why we're stuck with Gigabit Ethernet
* Links related to high-speed LANs
* Featured reader resource


If you're looking for a gift for that special network 
executive, or if you're a network executive looking for gifts 
for your family or friends, odds are we've played with, errr, 
tested a device that could do the trick. Check out our Holiday 
Gift Guide to help make this year's shopping easier!

Today's focus: The last upgrade

By Jeff Caruso 

I've argued against using Gigabit Ethernet for desktop 
connections - but in the end it doesn't matter, because within 
a few years Gigabit Ethernet will be standard.

Readers have sent me e-mail (thank you!) pointing out that it's 
really not practical today to install Gigabit Ethernet to the 
desktop, as it remains more expensive than 10/100M bit/sec 
Ethernet and many users would require upgraded switches and 
network interface cards.

But I think that in a few years the price of 10/100/1000M 
bit/sec Ethernet equipment will get to those affordable levels. 
Just as we moved from 10M bit/sec to 10/100M bit/sec because 
the price difference between the two evaporated, the move to 
10/100/1000M bit/sec is already in the works. 

Recently, Network World's Phil Hochmuth wrote about Gigabit 
Ethernet gear costing as low as $90 per port:

Plus, our reviews department took a look at Gigabit Ethernet 
switches for small offices, evaluating them on factors like 
ease of installation and performance:

Again, the performance doesn't come close to "gigabit" rates, 
as in the tests I pointed out last week:

But eventually (and this is a few years from now), from a 
desktop perspective "Gigabit Ethernet" becomes simply the 
standard link over which you get the most throughput possible 
on Category-5 copper wiring. In other words, everyone will use 
it for their copper connections and get what bandwidth they can 
from it.

Given that this will be much more bandwidth than PCs will be 
able to fully use for some time to come - and given that the 
only way to get more speed (as far as we know) is to take on 
the huge task of upgrading to fiber - this is going to be our 
last desktop upgrade for a long, long time.

To contact Jeff Caruso:

In addition to writing this newsletter, Jeff Caruso edits 
Network World's e-mail newsletters from his office in 
San Mateo, Calif. If you would like to make suggestions 
about newsletter format or content, or even just express 
your opinion on today's topic, you can reach Jeff at 
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Archive of the LAN newsletter:

YOUR TAKE: State Department CIO Burbano revamps network in time 
of war

New from Network World is our "Your Take" series. In this 
series, we conduct in-dept interviews with top network IT 
executives and share their experiences. First in this series, 
Network World Senior Editor Carolyn Duffy Marsan interviewed 
CIO Fernando Burbano about the status of the State Department's 
network upgrade, how it's changed since Sept. 11 and his advice 
regarding network security.
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Copyright Network World, Inc., 2001

This message was sent to:  rbrand@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

n:Brand;Richard C.
tel;work:408 495 2462
org:Advanced Technology Investments;Nortel Networks (408) 495 2462
title:Director, Network Architecture & Applications
fn:Richard C. Brand