Re: [HSSG] Market Validation Comments

[Bruce Tolley <btolley@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

To all:

 

It is an axiom of the academic literature on innovation that markets that do not exist, are very hard if not impossible to predict and segment. For example, see Christiansen, http://www.amazon.com/Innovators-Dilemma-Revolutionary-Business-Essentials/dp/0060521996

 

I cannot disagree with the end users who have come to the HSSG and requested 100G. But it should be pointed out that there have been discussions about 100G if not demand creation activities for 100G in the OIF and dot3 for many months now if not over two years.

 

With five plus years of history, there is an existing but rather smallish 10G market and third market market research exists that can be used to size and segment it. Some of this research was used to prepare a presentation to the Interim in Monterey.  During the 802.3ae process and into 2002 and 2003 there was interest, market predictions, hype and hope about such technologies as 10GBASE-LX4, WAN PHY, and 10GBASE-ER most of which did not bear much tangible fruit in terms of POs signed by customers much to the dismay of the companies who invested in such technologies.

 

In short, I think it will be hard to drive consensus based on hard data. Much of the argument is driven by expectations for the future and perceptions about the best path to move forward. That being said, it might be possible if not desirable for the HSSG to quantify its expectations, to describe what “exactly” it expects the market to be to be worth a standards effort. Will it be bigger or smaller than 10K ports in year 1 and 300K ports in year 5?  And in year 1 will customers be willing to pay 20 to 40X the price of a 10G optical port for an optical 100G port?

 

Thanks

 

Bruce Tolley