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Re: [802.3BA] Discussion on 40G for => 10 km SMF

Hi Mark
I agree that DC application is cost sensitive.
As many people agreed in some presentations at meeting, CWDM will be cheaper at near term and serial will became cheaper in maybe 2011 or beyond.
That means transceiver supplier have to develop CWDM in 2009 timeframe and serial in 2010 or 11.
This development will cost much. And I do not think CWDM cost in 2009 or 2010 will be cheaper than 4x10G.
Even more DC application users can choose 8x10G CWDM that has more bandwidth.
I do not think CWDM has superior merit for DC application.
Also I think there was a presentation that said that DC will start install 40G in 2015 or beyond.
Atsushi Takai
Marketing Division, Opnext Japan, Inc
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Wednesday, July 30, 2008 4:08 AM
Subject: Re: [802.3BA] Discussion on 40G for ="" 10 km SMF

I agree some reflector discussion would be helpful on this topic.
I characterize the discussion I heard around the choice of PMD as really boiling down to a debate on the primary applications and the drivers for those applications.
The original justification for adding the 40G SMF objective was primarily based on the application of Data Center inter-switch links.  There was also other applications such as for use in interconnecting to OTN equipment which is good for BMP.  In both cases lower cost solutions are preferential.  The debate appears to revolve around what other assumptions there are around market timing, technology risks, cost projections and operational issues etc.
To me the simple view is that to achieve low cost, you need higher volume.  Higher volume is achieved by the having a solution that addresses the largest primary application and as many others as possible.  I am assuming that the primary application is still the DC.
Since DC applications are inherently much more sensitive to cost, a near term low cost solution is needed or else the application will likely not be adopted.  In this case, if 40G SMF PMD is uneconomical in the near term then the DC users will likely stay with nx10G as long as possible and then presumably assess the 40G/100G economics at some later date.
The argument for adopting serial technology now is that the potential higher volume of the DC application will trigger the necessary development investments now and drive the cost of that technology down so we will ultimately get it to the low cost solutions needed.  My concern is that the timing and cost windows needed for the DC application do no fit with that model and we would end up with little adoption in that market and end up with a lower volume, higher cost PMD which is what we would all like to avoid.

From: John DAmbrosia [mailto:jdambrosia@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx]
Sent: Monday, July 28, 2008 6:53 PM
To: STDS-802-3-HSSG@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: [802.3BA] Discussion on 40G for ="" 10 km SMF

Dear Task Force Members,

Per Motion #9 from July, the editorial team is working on creating a ?a draft based on adopted baseline proposals for circulation prior to the September 2008 interim meeting

.?  Unfortunately, at the July meeting the Task Force did not reach consensus on a baseline proposal to satisfy the 40G over => 10km SMF objective.    Therefore, in September we need to reach closure on this issue.  


With that said, I would like to strongly recommend that the TF make use of the reflector to discuss the various issues of debate that have been going on, both during the meetings and during offline discussions. 


Let?s use the next several weeks to have meaningful debate so we can reach consensus at the September meeting.




John D?Ambrosia

Chair, IEEE P802.3ba Task Force